Thursday, 1 October 2015

RTE misinformation and vacuous spin

On September 30th, 2015, the "Today with Sean O'Rourke" radio program ran a feature on Beating the Meter.

On Twitter, a pair of tweets called attention to the upcoming section.


 Ok. We understand English. The cap can be beaten. The program will tell us how easy it is to do so.
A second tweet indicated that it will be really, really easy.

Wow! Most people are getting the capped bills of €64 per quarter (€260 per year). This person is coming in at €10 per quarter (€40 per year). Saving of €220 per year!
Maybe they are doing some extraordinary conservation things to do that, but it must mean that just about anybody who even half-tried should be getting bills under the cap - even if not as much as €220 under. Ammirite?

This is going to be interesting.

Up comes the program.
Sean O'Rourke: "Now yesterday, we heard from our reporter Brian O'Connell about how some protestors are stopping the installation of water meters in some areas". 
( sigh - yes we know - those strange leftie sinister people with their can't pay - while we are about to hear from someone who's annual water bill for a house full of people is going to be €40. And that's before we think about what to do with a €100 Water Conservation Grant. Two-pint man would die of thirst if that was his budget. )
SOR: "Today Brian is looking at how some households can lower their water bills. This stems, Brian,  from a claim the Minister Alan Kelly."

BOC: "That's right. In late 2014, Minister Kelly had said that householders could save money by using less water. And he had said that basically that if you reduce water usage by between 10% and 15%, Sean,  then approximately half of Irish households would be able to beat the cap and have bills lower than the amount that’s being currently charged for each house....

SOR: I think a lot of people would have b.. might have been quite sceptical about Alan Kelly’s claims but..eh..and we’ll be talking to a colleague of ours as well in a few minutes - a very thrifty woman telling us about her family’s experience. I’ll tell you now, Christmas is going to be well managed on the money she has saved, but ….. (some giggles about Brian’s being glad he’s sitting upwind of her )  … you met some people who’ve actually taken up the Alan Kelly challenge.
SOR goes slightly negative with "would have been" morphed into "could have been skeptical". It implies that Kelly's statement lacked credibility.
But... it's OK. Somebody coming up soon who seems to have saved a lot of money.
In the meantime, we're to hear about people making whatever level of effort to beat the cap

BOC has found a water conservation expert named Martin Lane. ML runs a company named Water Save. He's also been looking very, very carefully at his own water consumption and his neighbours as well.
ML has beaten the cap in his house. He reckons his bill will be €50 under the €260 cap.

ML’s neighbours – 2 adults and 2 children under 17 and one over 21.
In the last 21 weeks, their meter read 85,000 litres

ML’s analysis: 578 litres per day for 3 adults and 2 children – which is under the average.
ML explains that the €260 cap equates to 70,000 litres of water

He reckons from his experience (working in this area a long time)  that this family would use about 148,000 litres per year.  More than double what the cap is at. They would need to reduce their water usage by 61% to level the cap

SOR: So Brian, that’s quite a tall order there
BOC: Yes, even if they do modify their behaviour

BOC asks ML what kind of things his neighbours could do to get down to the cap

ML: He’s going to spend at least a minimum of €1,000 to get there
BOC: to get to €50 under the cap.  20 years before getting the money back …AND.. obviously maintenance and upkeep along the way
ML: “Yeah. You hit the nail on the head there. The figures just don’t add up. It doesn’t pay under the current water charges regime to save water”
DANGER WILL ROBINSON!!!
We're supposed to talking about how easy it is to beat the cap. The above is waaaayyyy off-message.

BOC: “What kind of households will be able to beat the cap easier?”

Eh Brian…”easiER” implies that it’s any way easy to begin with before it can get easier. Martin has just told you that for most people it's not alone not easy, but impossible.

ML: The single person household. He estimates from readings and studies that they would have to reduce their water by 8.5%, so fairly easy for person living alone to equal the cap.
“Once you go above that, it gets harder and harder.” “Single occupancy, quite easy. Above that, No”
((Note:  I would take issue with that. It might apply for a single person who is out all day and evening, and therefore does not consume much water at home. A single stay-at-hime person would be a different matter.))

SOR asks BOC how ML can bring his bill in under the government cap (€50 under the €260)
BOC: He’s obviously an expert in this area, so he has access to the technology Sean, and the equipment. He reckons his bill will be about €213 ”

We then hear a description of the devices that ML uses:
Kitchen undersink instant water heater so don’t have to run hot tap for a while before hot water flows. ML estimates he was wasting 60 litres of water per day that way before the heater.
A-rated washing machine would only use about 21 litres in a full wash (Older version would use 70 litres)
A-rated dishwasher  would only use about 7  litres in a full wash (Older version would use 22 or 23 litres)
Bathroom. Instant electic heater under the sink
Toilet. Standard empties whole cistern. ML's only flushes while the handle is held down
ML: Just the simple devices kitchen and bathroom you’re looking at between €1000 and €1200 for your average household.

BOC: So when Alan Kelly says if you’re smart about it, you can beat the cap ..is he being realistic?
ML: No. Not at all.
Ehhhhhhh. 'Beat the Cap'-wise, this is NOT going at all well.
ML: “Absolutely not at all, but it’s not possible. I know what we’re talking about here, and believe you me, it can’t be done.
Ehhhhh, Make it stop. Make it stop! The message is not just "off". It's somewhere on a far distant galaxy.
This is the person that RTE brought in as an expert to talk about beating the cap.  Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?

SOR: “So, Brian, all sorts of little tricks and gadgets there…(talks about instant water heater)
BOC then mentions that Martin also has a system for his shower. It takes the cold water initially running and diverts it back into use for flushing…
((Note:  I've completely replumbed two fixer-upper houses in my time. In the current one, I put in a second water tank in the attic. It feeds the toilet cisterns and a washing machine only via dedicated pipes. It can be filled with rainwater. That pipework is straightforward in a rebuild. In a retro-fit it could involve significant disruption. It's nowhere as simple as installing undersink instant heaters and buying new A-rated appliances.))
BOC: “It’s like walking into McGyver’s house. He’s got all the gadgets in the house, but a significant investment of about €1,000” 
Yes. €1,000 to €1,200 - which probably does not include his very non-standard shower arrangement if it's a retro-fit.
After that investment, he achieves €50 off his annual capped bill. 20-year payback at current charges.
He's also very insistent that Alan Kelly's claims on beating the cap are not realistic.
 ML: Absolutely not at all, but it’s not possible. I know what we’re talking about here, and believe you me, it can’t be done.

Houston. We've had a problem here.
Did nobody check in advance of broadcast what BOC was bringing to the 'Beat the Cap' party?
Send for the cavalry.

SOR: Also here in the studio... Assistant Producer Elaine Devlin
ED has good news about her water bill. She says she’s one of those “outlier cases” that has an incredibly low water bill. She's done this without making any particular effort to do so.
“In essence, we wouldn’t be particularly good on the conservation stuff. I would have run around the house for the last few months shouting at the kids ”
She got a bill in June for €10
That's for 2 adults and 2 children.
She was a bit suspicious of the €10 bill and she rang Irish Water to check . They said “Don’t worry about that. If it’s low in the next quarter, call us back.”
Her next bill was for €11.54
Astounding – when it should have been €64.
SOR: “So what are your doing?”
ED: “Nothing – honestly – apart from the odd shout at the children”
So she called Irish water again. She didn’t want a huge bill on Christmas week  ‘This is the real bill. We’re sorry we got this wrong. Here’s a bill for €300
So she told them

This time they said they would send out an Irish Water Engineer to have a look .
ED: So out he arrived and he had a look. And he ran a very simple test and .. in essence when I turned on the tap, the meter was turning over. When I turned off the tap, the meter was stopping.
 This Irish Water Engineer was probably on his first day or so of JobBridge placement. He gets paid €50 a week on top of his dole to work at whatever. He gets promised a mentor and will learn all about being an Engineer. He does appear  to have had a small amount of mentoring. He seems to know how to open the cover of a meter box and look down. He seems to have a grasp of the basic concept of digits on the meter changing when water flows through it. What he does not seem to have been mentored about is that the function of a water meter is to actually measure the volume of water flowing. It's not there just to indicate that some water is flowing.
 
ED: So we’re going through, to give you an idea,  our quarterly volume is 3,119 litres, Now that should be 32,000 litres
SOR: So it’s a tenth, but you’d hardly make yourself a cup of tea or coffee with that …….
ED: Irish Water admitted to me it was a little on the low side , but they kind of wished me well with my lovely meter and didn’t ask me if I was doing any amazing conservation tricks, and to be honest, I’m not. It is standard fare in our house as regards water usage
SOR’s only reaction to this is to mention that the news gets better.
ED gets her €100 grant. She describes the water conservation grant as “getting my €100 back” and “thanks to Alan Kelly am now effectively €78 up as a result of Irish Water.”
SOR: “Maybe you need to organise a counter protest. Water charges for all so we can get money from the government.” (laughs)
That’s it. They all end in fatuous giggles and thanks for joining in. End of.
It should be obvious to even to the most stupid person that the meter is seriously faulty. It's not "a little on the low side". It's effectively paying the Devlins a nett €78 per year to use unlimited quanties of water.
There is no "therefore" - either from RTE or Irish Water.
It's Kildare Village Lite in that studio.


This is completely insane



To illustate just how incredibly broken that meter is, consider the situation if the readings were even close to being accurate:

Devlins apparently used 3,119 litres in 91 days
That’s an average of just over 34 litres per day
A standard shower alone uses about 49 litres.

Devlins don’t use water for anything but showering. They shower once a day, but it’s all four of them together in it – and it’s shorter than average shower.
They don’t drink, cook, wash clothes, dishes, floors or teeth.
A standard washing machine would drink about 70 litres per wash. Their clothes stink.

And ........they don’t ever flush the loo.
All of their water is used for quick communal showers.

Ah now! .... Here!



Flushing loos is a very heavy water usage activity. On average, one third of water used in a household is used for flushing. On that basis they would use 11.5 litres per day for flushing loos and 22.5 litres per day for everything else.
A standard flush is 6 litres. That’s 2 flushes per day. Shared between 4 people.
A typical dual-flush uses 4 litres for a #2 and  3 litres for a #1
If they have a dual-flush, they could do two big flushes (poo&pee) and one little flush (pee or OMIGAWD it's still there) per day.
That’s between 4 people, each of them pooing and peeing as people tend to do around everytime.

You've maybe heard that conservation advice:
“If it’s yellow, let it mellow.
  If it’s brown, flush it down.”

In the Devlin house, they’ve created a new one:
“If it’s brown, don’t look down.”

They maybe do the two big accumulated household flushes to coincide with the Angelus at midday and 6PM. Make a ceremony of this rare event. This would also reinforce their prayers that it all goes down.

You think homeless people have it hard?
You know nothing! "Hard?" You can’t take “hard”
Try sharing a home with the Devlins  :(
Have you ever tried a winter with all the doors and windows wide open?
Have you ever tried to take a dump while wearing a full HazMat suit?

The Devlin water meter is very clearly malfunctioning, and is doing so very significantly.
Two important questions arise from this.

  1. Why have Irish water just left it there as is?
    Leaving it there is losing them about €53 per quarter in billing revenue. About €210 per year just for one house.
  2. Why has SOR just laughed it off?
    It's blatantly obvious that the readings are very seriously wrong. They are not merely "a little on the low side"
    There's a major question as to why Irish Water are doing nothing about it.
    He's ignored the obvious problem and questions.
    He pre-announces and presents this as someone beating the cap.

Options for answers:

Answer 1.a
Irish Water see the losses due to meters under-reporting usage as a marketing/PR expense. If a sufficient number of faulty meters result in bills under the cap, they can use these to spread a "Calm down - bills will be lower if you conserve a little bit" message. "We have X number of people who are beating the cap."

Answer 1.b
Irish Water might prefer to keep a low profile on the question of faulty meters.
People benefiting from artificially low bills might make noises when the real bills arrive.
People might start to query readings as overstated. That gets into a world of pain and expense.

Answer 1.c
Irish Water are simply grossly incompetent. They have no procedures in place to deal with the situation. They have no employees/agents whose brief includes calling attention to what could be a major revenue loss if numbers of meters are similarly broken. They have no employees/agents with the motivation to raise a flag. They send out an 'engineer' whose competence/training leaves them with the idea that a meter test involves checking that the numbers change if water flows.

Answer 2.a
SOR is a vacuous twat. Someone had fed him a line that 'Beat the Cap' is a runner.
He pimps this in advance - e.g. those tweets quoted above.
Presented with ML telling BOC that "Absolutely not at all, but it’s not possible. I know what we’re talking about here, and believe you me, it can’t be done", he just moves on to ED and all the good news of money saved for Christmas shopping.
He has the concept that "You couldn't even make a cup of tea or coffee" with the volumes reported by the meter readings, but he does not follow through with the glaring obvious question that arises.
ED seems to have some inkling that the Irish Water Engineer test was less than exhaustive, but seems happy to be off the hook. She tried twice to flag the situation, but Irish Water didn't care. SOR doesn't question it at all.

Answer 2.b
SOR is not a vacuous twat. He is consciously feeding the audience a load of spin. He has the arrogance to stay with the spin even if the content he's overlording shows the spin to be be ridiculous.

Answer 2 with Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
Later in the program, SOR uses a break between features to inform the audience that Irish Water have been on to him. They say that 4(?) out of 10 customers are beating the cap.
Despite what ML says and despite ED's 'beating the cap' being transparently bogus, he simply regurgitates what Irish Water PR have fed to him.
Take the expert ML's assertions on percentage reductions and costs of tech required to even meet the cap. Take the water volumes per household profile (agreed by CER) that I quote in earlier November/December 2014 posts further down this page. Take that Irish Water refuse to do anything about a meter giving stupidly low readings.
If any significant numbers of 'Beat the caps' are claimed, the very strong odds are that those people have faulty meters.
SOR doesn't exhibit the remotest glimmer. He just regurgitates the spin.

Answer.2 with therefores
How much is SOR being paid? Most probably "a lot" - for his few hours on the air. There's no great evidence of real off-air research.
Another way of putting that would be "What is he on?" - but that would be ambiguous.
His sorry ass on a chair in Montrose is being paid out of TV license fees. Public service broadcasting y'see.
Whether he's just a vacuous twat stupidly blindly regurgitating someone's spin or he's a conscious sock puppet, it still remains that his program is trying to infect the audience with the Stupid Virus.
You don't like paying for this? Don't pay your TV license. Then you go to jail.







Thursday, 11 December 2014

Mathematical Proof that Enda Kenny is a Liar and/or a Fool

The numbers in the maths come from Irish Water as agreed with the Regulator.
This is not politics. It’s science.

Here is Enda Kenny speaking on RTE News at Nine, after Alan Kelly had unveiled the revised water charges plan in the Dáil.






At 3:30 into the interview, he’s talking about the metering program and he says:
“It gives people the opportunity to conserve water and beat the cap. And there are 750,000 households that can beat that cap if they follow the instructions for conserving water and do so by a minimum of 10 to 15 percent. So there’s a real incentive there.”
He looks totally sincere as he says that. The problem is that what he says is patently absurd. He is either lying or he is a sock puppet parroting lies fed to him by others.

Based on numbers agreed by Irish Water and the Regulator – and using Irish Water’s own grid – these are the percentage reductions needed to equal the cap.

Note: These numbers are worked in detail in posts further down the page.
They use Irish Water’s own numbers.

For Kenny’s assertion to be true, there would have to be 750,000 households of 2 adults and 5 (under 18 years) children. That is the only combination that “beats the meter” and uses less than the capped volumes. It depends on that household achieving a 14% reduction. The ‘meter effect’ that Irish Water expect is 6%. It’s agreed with the Regulator and built into the original Assessed Charges for people awaiting meter installation.

His assertion ( his own or by sock puppet ) is a clear falsehood. (aka Lie )

Following the backlash against Irish Water in general and against the initial billing regime, the government introduced a temporarily capped system. It seems they still had doubts that this would be enough to quiet things down. The “beat the meter” scam is an attempt to fool people into thinking that they could easily pay less than the cap. The problem is that this scam will be uncovered as soon as the bills start coming in April 2015. The scam is therefore pure short-termism. Contain the backlash and deal with the new backlash when it arises in a few months. Hope that people will be too tired to object then.

As an aside, Kenny in that video claims that the Minimum Wage in Ireland is €35,000 per year.
He's been in the Dail 40 years. He's paid more than Obama. He's so disconnected from the reality of ordinary people that he can come out with howlers like that in a prepared speech on primetime news.

How can anyone trust the government?

The “Beat the Meter” scam shows contempt for the people. It is predicated on an assumption that the people are stupid.
  • Are the bills going to rise to and beyond the original levels in a few years? Yes.
  • Is Irish Water going to end up being privatised? Yes. Why is the government so insistent on not copperfastening a statement to the contrary.
They can make all the assertion they want to, but anyone who does not analyse them in minute detail is a fool.





Saturday, 29 November 2014

Proof that Government and Irish Water should not be believed

Temporary climb-down on amounts in Water Bills

- backed up by outrageous lies about reducing them by 'Beating the Meter '

Government desperate to dilute the numbers on the December 10th March

 

  If you want to tell a lie, tell a big one.

1. For the original billing plan, Irish Water published the water volumes on which Assessed Bills would be issued


Note: 
The original Irish Water Charges page has now been replaced by the new charging plan
The original page is available on the WayBack machine
https://web.archive.org/web/20141028170428/http://www.water.ie/customer-applications/charges/




2. Two adults with two children = 129 Cubic Metres


Look at that figure in the grid above - of 129 m3 for two adults and two children. Thats 129,000 litres.

Read http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/meters-will-cut-family-water-use-by-just-6-297603.html
 November 13, 2014

Meters will cut family water use by just 6%
Extracts:
Irish Water has supplied details to the regulator of the estimated reduced use of water by households from metering based on a survey it did of 1,600 households, the Irish Examiner can confirm.
….
The regulator’s office last night confirmed the estimated saving of just 6% in water usage with water meters.
….
An average household of two adults and two children are expected to use 137,100 litres per year, the regulator says, which reduces to 129,000 with a meter.
This demonstrates that:

3. The Assessed volumes published by Irish Water had the expected 6% ‘meter effect’ applied.

This would be sensible to do.
People were promised rebates for assessed bills that turned out to be greater than those arising after some months of metered use. It is probable that many would be most conscious of saving at least for this initial period.
If large numbers of people ended up demanding rebates, this would be both very bad PR as well as an administrative load.

4. The Assessed water consumption volumes are therefore 6% below the estimate for non-metered, so the pre-meter volumes are:


5. Compare these ‘actual expected’ volumes with the numbers being touted under the new billing plan.

From a report at http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/water/irish-water-crisis/half-of-homes-will-be-able-to-beat-the-water-meter-30762095.html
 November 21, 2014

Extracts:
“The company estimated that one in three metered customers would receive bills below the capped rates. A reduction in consumption of 15pc, or 20 to 35 litres per day, would mean that 50pc of metered customers could reduce their bill to an amount below the cap.”

"We believe with a 15pc reduction, half the country will beat the meter”

There are two major problems with these assertions:

A. The water consumption base implied there and from which to reduce is wildly understated.

Claim: 15% = 20 or 35 litres per day, so:
Look at the grid of pre-meter water volumes above.
“Half the country” seems to be missing.
The lowest is a single adult household at 70 m3 per year

B. The expected reduction was 6%, not 15%. Even with a 15% reduction, nobody gets down to the capped volumes.

What are the cap volumes that people have to meet and drop under before they can see a lesser Bill?

‘Single adult’ cap is €160
‘Two or more adults’ cap is €260
New (lower) price per cubic metre (1000 litres) is €3.70
The cap would therefore ‘buy’ 43.24 m3 for a single adult, or 70.27 m3 for two or more adults.
Each child gets an allowance of 21 m3 per year.
The capped volumes after children’s allowances are added work out as:


The water volumes to be reduced in order to get down from pre-meter volumes to capped volumes are:


Irish Water claim that “A reduction in consumption of 15pc, or 20 to 35 litres per day, would mean that 50pc of metered customers could reduce their bill to an amount below the cap.”
But 20 to 25 litres per day is 7.3 to 12.8 m3 per year.

The lowest possible reductions to meet the cap are 22 to 27 m3

What precentage reductions are required to reduce from Pre-Meter consumption to meet Cap consumption?

Bear in mind that the 'meter effect' expected by Irish Water was 6%. That 6% was built into the original Assessed Bills.
Even if 10% to 15% reductions were possible, only a couple with 4 children (15%) or 5 children (14%) would even meet the cap.

Studies indicating 'meter effect' of 10% to 15% are looking at the initial phase immediately following the meter installation - where meter readings indicate a leak within a house. This is a one-off situation. These leaks are not 'consumption' that can be moderated by day-to-day water habits of the residents. Once any leaks are fixed, it seems that 6% becomes the general day-to-day effect of metering.



There are "Lies, damned lies, and statistics"

Then there is what Irish Water and the government come out with.


What happened?
They came out with metering and a pricing plan.
The government got really scared by the numbers on the streets protesting.
They came back with Plan.B – bills capped to €160 or €260 – with €100 to help pay the bills.

They had to try reduce the numbers marching in protest. Split the protestor pool.
  • Paint (all) protests as infested with "sinister fringes" who try to provoke violence - so as to scare off "reasonable"/"respectable" people.
Clearly, they believed that even Plan.B was not enough to do that sufficiently.
They needed to fool the (stupid) people even more.

So Plan.B.1
  • Tell people that “half the country” (aka anyone who tried even a little) would easily be able to reduce consumption enough to get bills well under the caps.

Minister Alan ( my legacy will be a nose much longer than Pinocchio's ) Kelly:
"We estimate that if metered households can reduce their water consumption by between ten and fifteen per cent, then approximately half of Irish households will be able to ‘beat the cap’ and have bills lower than the amounts outlined. "
 In the Dail - where he said that - this is known as "misleading the Dail".

"In fact, some people will be able to get their bills below €100 and when taken with the water conservation grant – they will likely be slightly better off because of the introduction of water charges and meter."
You really have to parse everything that politicians say.
What does "some" mean here?
It can only mean the "some people" who are never home. Single people - who shower in the gym or go smelly. They poo anywhere but home. They eat out.
*Technically*... "some people" might be able to beat the meter.


Kelly's attempts at a Pinocchio legacy are in danger of being outshadowed by Michael McNicholas of Ervia:
“According to McNicholas, around 25pc of households are already below the implied usage level in those charges and can reduce their bill easily."




Government hope that compliant media will regurgitate this nonsense without checking the numbers.
It’s extreme short-termism.
When the bills start coming, the story will be blown completely.

It seems that they have decided to worry about that when the time comes.
In the meantime, they just want as many people as possible people off the streets. It’s embarrassing for them.



Irish Water – taking the piss, in more ways than one





Addendum:

How a sample family might “Beat the meter”

Just for giggles, let’s see how a household of two adults and two children could reduce consumption
From 137,000 litres  - Regulator agreed with Irish Water as the normal pre-metering volume
To 112,000 litres – The capped volume for that household

That’s a reduction of  25,000 litres  - a percentage reduction of 18.25%

Toilet flushing is a major consumer of water.
The old standard cistern ( the bog standard ? ) flushes 6 litres
A modern dual-flush cistern flushes 4.5 or 3 litres.

Let’s work with 4.5 litres – the “number 2” of a dual-flush
Let’s say they put a displacement brick/hippo in the cistern if they have an old type – to bring water content of a flush down to 4.5 litres. ( A gallon - near as makes no difference )
This family is conservation-aware.

How many 4.5 litre flushes in a reduction of 25,000 litres?
5,556 flushes per year
15 flushes per day.

That's a  LOT ( aka 'not a chance in hell' ) of water to try and save by turning off the tap while brushing teeth, etc.

Okies!
This is ….“Conservation Boot Camp”
We’re going to use rainwater flush the toilets.

If we can do 15 rainwater flushes per day over 2 adults and 2 children we can meet the cap.
That’s an average of 3.8 flushes per person per day
…which would be….. kind of all the flushes they ever do anyway.

This is ….Conservation extreme. It’s “I’m gotta colon – Get me out of here”

OK. We can’t afford to set up a separate water tank in the attic, fed by pumps from water butts and run a pipe to the cistern(s) in the bathroom(s).
We’ll use buckets of water to flush. No touching that flush lever !!!

There’s absolutely no financial gain here. It just meets the cap.
However, any further flushes avoided would be worth €0.0167 each
It’s rather a pity that there would be no flushes to save. We’ve cut 15 per day – average 3.8 each.
Maybe we were flushing 16 times a day – that’s 4 flushes each. Eat fibre. Keep regular. Also be sure to hydrate.
If we use rainwater for the 16th flush of the day, that’s 365 flushes of 4.5 litres per year.
That’s 1,643 litres under the cap – worth €6.08  per year at €3.70 per m3

Awesome. We are flushed with success.

Unfortunately, there are some practical considerations here.

16 buckets of water a day.

How many buckets can we keep handily available close to the bathroom?
How many buckets can we fit in the bathroom?
How many outside the door?
It’s not reasonable to have people (especially small children) go out to fill a bucket as part of the bathroom ritual – particularly if it’s bucketing down outside – and particularly at night.
Maybe keep 4 buckets of water indoors. One flush each. Try not to knock them over or spill much as we pour it down.
Try not to spill as we carry buckets of water around indoors and maybe up a stairs.
Oops! Floaters! More water!

Water butts – harvesting rainwater from downpipes


16 by 4.5 litre flushes per day is 72 litres.
I see plain water butts available – say €300 for a 300 litre one.
That would be good for 4 days and a bit.
With that extra 16th daily flush getting us €6.08 per year under the cap, we’d have our investment back in about 50 years.


There is a tiny problem with this picture.
The family have to stay home.  They're not going to 'go' 4 times a day at home if they are out at work or school.
Maybe if they *never* have a bath? Maybe have a good wash only every second day - or so?


In any case, . that rainwater flushng part would be dependent on enough rain being harvested on a continuous basis. We’d need more capacity to cater for dry spells.

Remember that line in the movie Jaws:



Yes. We’re going to need a bigger butt.
We’re definitely going to need them for bigger households.

It’s not like we can just pull butts out of out asses. We might be looking at a 100-year payback.

Probably not that long though.
As soon as the government gets its nerve back, those caps will go. All of a sudden we’ll be looking at the original billing level for a family with two children at the €278 level.
That will be €278 and not €100 “grant” – as the “grant” is an attempt at an accounting ‘stroke’ to replace the original Household Allowance.

Bills will climb rapidly, particularly as corporations will sue under trade agreements like TISA or TTIP to be allowed compete in the market.
So investing money that we might or might not have in rain harvesting could have a payback.

But…
Only half of the bill is for water supply.
The other half is for wastewater disposal.

With enough people using rainwater to flush toilets or do various types of household cleaning that ends up in wastewater, the suppliers are going to start charging for accepting the wastewater that they didn’t get paid for as water supply.
Payback time goes way up again.



Bottom line for domestic rainwater harvesting

It's not going to reduce the bills to a significant degree.
The investment for storage, piping, pumps and control systems would be high. You would be paying a lot of money simply for 'feel-good' and some independence if the public water supply were interrupted.

The sample family above - IF they normally flush 3 or 4 times a day each - only get to save €6/year if they carry buckets of water indoors for ALL flushing.
If they do not flush that many times each - because they do some/most at work/school/etc. - then each one they don't do is 1 gallon that they would have to save some other way.  If they flush at home only twice each, then that's maybe 8 gallons a day that they would have to conserve some other way. And ..... that's just to meet the cap - with no reduction of the capped bill.
They can't conserve that much water - not unless they invest in equipment to purify harvested rainwater.

Dublin City Council have a page on water harvesting at http://www.dublincity.ie/main-menu-services-water-waste-and-environment-your-drinking-water-rainwater-harvesting/rainwater

Extract:
If you are a non-domestic customer you can significantly reduce your annual water bill

The average reduction in water consumption due to installation of a meter was estimated at 6% by Irish Water. They built that into the Assessed (non-metered) Bills in the original pricing plan.

Your chances of "beating the meter" - a reduction of over 18% in the case of 2 adults with 2 children - are just the wild imaginings of Government / Irish Water spin doctors.




Added - December 3rd & 9th, 2014

That Dublin City Council page linked just above was modifed heavily on December 3rd.
It had stated that rainwater harvesting systems had to be registered with Irish Water. That was the subject of a twitter storm. The registration need was deleted - amongst other changes.

In particular as related to this blog:
The new page has modified the sentence quoted above  -
  "If you are a non-domestic customer you can significantly reduce your annual water bill"
It now reads
  "If you have a metered account you can significantly reduce your annual water bill"

A saving grace is that as part of the modifications, they added extra advice on rainwater harvesting:
More sophisticated rainwater harvesting systems are not common in Dublin for the following reasons:
  • The relatively high cost of the systems especially if retro-fitting.
  • Concerns that the quality of the water may pose a health risk.
  • Requires some technical skills to install and provide regular maintenance.
It is important to evaluate the potential savings before investing in a rainwater harvesting system.
 This should be a clear indications that "If you have a metered account you can significantly reduce your annual water bill" is missing something like "provided that you can make a significant investment in the system so that it covers water purification."



Quite apart from the cost of the re-plumbing, tanks and pumps, there is also the cost of purifying that rainwater.
Rainwater is as sewerage. Birds poop in it. Vermin could possibly dump in it. It has washed your roof and gutters. It's probably been sitting in a tank for many days or weks. It's a cocktail - and a potentialy dangerous one - healthwise.
You should not drink it or brush your teeth with it.
You should not shower with it. You could end up breathing in something nasty due to the aerosol effect of a shower.
You have to keep it separate from normal kitchen and bathroom hot & cold supplies.
Without treatment, you are limited to flushing and maybe a clothes washer (but low-termperature washes might be an issue). You might use it for general house-cleaning, but you need some way of heating it.

If you used it for toilet-flushing only, you don't need a treatment system. You still need storage, pumps and retro-plumbing of the cistern supply (if this is not a new-build/refurb).
Under the revised Billing system announced in November, you are not going to see a payback that gets you under your capped bill. Even if you skip the pumps & plumbing - and carry buckets of water indoors for all flushing - you still don't get a payback.


That change from "If you are a non-domestic customer you can significantly reduce your annual water bill"
to "If you have a metered account you can significantly reduce your annual water bill".
Has to be seen as spin - even if vague caveats lurk nearby.
It's the same as saying "If you only use taxis, you can significantly reduce your annual motoring costs".



Friday, 28 November 2014

Irish Water Meters - the Conservation Scam

by @FauxMole

Irish Water and the government claim that people with meters installed will be able to pay less than the capped charge (€160 for 1 adult; €260 for 2 or more adults)  by reducing their water consumption by 15%.

From a report at http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/water/irish-water-crisis/half-of-homes-will-be-able-to-beat-the-water-meter-30762095.html

 “The company estimated that one in three metered customers would receive bills below the capped rates. A reduction in consumption of 15pc, or 20 to 35 litres per day, would mean that 50pc of metered customers could reduce their bill to an amount below the cap.”
"We believe with a 15pc reduction, half the country will beat the meter”
It sounds encouraging.
Unfortunately it is total fantasy (aka “bull”).
This is apparent once you look at the numbers.

Claim: 15% = 20 or 35 litres per day, so:

They now claim that each household in “Half the country” consumes 49 to 85 m3 per year.

This is nonsense – according to their own figures for Assessed Charges in the initial plan under which they had intended to issue bills.

 How does “Half the country” – apparently using 49 to 85 m3 fit in to this?
“Half the country” would appear to consist of lone adults (perhaps with one child) and childless couples who consume less than normal.

Whether or not a 15% reduction in realistic consumption would get “half the country” under the cap is an entirely separate calculation
Spoiler: It would not.

  1. The consumption implied by their 15% = “20 or 30 litres per day” significantly understates what they stated for the initial pricing plan.
  2. Additionally, achievement of this 15% reduction is very suspect, as they say:
    "In terms of the metering, we initially believed consumption could fall by 10pc to 15pc. We have seen lower levels in Dublin since October 1, but we can't make assumptions in that regard.”
What Irish Water are now saying is completely at odds with data from the Commission for Energy Regulation (CER)  - and with the volumes for which they had intended to issue assessed bills.
From: http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/meters-will-cut-family-water-use-by-just-6-297603.html
The installation of water meters across the country will only result in a 6% saving in the amount of water an average family uses, the Commission for Energy Regulation has confirmed. 
An average household of two adults and two children are expected to use 137,100 litres per year, the regulator says, which reduces to 129,000 with a meter.

129,000 litres (129 m3 ) ? Does that sound famliar?
See that Consumption grid above. Irish Waster was going to send out Assessed Bills to non-metered houses based on two adults and two children using 129 m3.
They were goig to issue assessed bills based on an expectation that the installation of a meter would in general only reduce consumption by 6%.

So what's this 15% reduction Dudes?


That doubt about 15% is backed up by this report:
 http://www.heednet.org/metering-defraHEEDnet.pdf

TITLE: Do Water Meters Reduce Domestic Consumption?: a summary of available literature

This paper presents the best available current research on water metering around the world, with a special emphasis on European, North American and Commonwealth comparator nations. In summary, the research suggests that there is little evidence that compulsory universal metering can achieve either the water conservation or social equity goals articulated by the government. The author concludes that policymakers need to think much more carefully about metering technologies.

Related to the 15% above, it has to say:
The author has no particular position on the issue of water metering although on balance he feels that the most often cited argument, that it can result in 15% demand reduction, does not stand up to scrutiny.

It mentions a particular trial in the UK
By 1993 the early results of this trial had shown that the average reduction in domestic consumption associated with compulsory metering seemed to be around 11%, though DEFRA (2006) claims savings of between 10 and 15% (and ministers have been known to claim as much as 20%).
However the same trials also showed that as much as 40% of this apparent reduction was actually the product of better leak detection rather than reduced/disciplined household consumption
So - if 15% reduction was noted, this was not due to a 15% lesser usage of water
It seems studies show that 10% or 11% reduction would be more realistic than 15%

Let’s see how 15% stands up to the consumption volumes that Irish Water published for the original billing plan.
It seems from CER's numbers that the consumption grid published by Irish Water on their website for teh initial billing plan already included a 6% 'meter effect', but let's take that as pre-meter so as to give Irish Water any chance of not being shown up as confidence tricksters ( more Irish Snake Oil than Irish Water ).

What are the cap volumes that people have to meet and drop under before they can see a lesser Bill?

‘Single adult’ cap is €160
‘Two or more adults’ cap is €260
New (lower) price per cubic metre (1000 litres) is €3.70
The cap would therefore ‘buy’ 43.24 m3 for a single adult, or 70.27 m3 for two or more adults.
Each child gets an allowance of 21 m3 per year.
The cap volumes work out as:

Note: The volumes in this analysis and below are rounded to nearest whole number for easier reading and comparison. The underlying calculations use the un-rounded values. This avoids cumulative rounding errors.

What did Irish Water think households would consume?

Note: These numbers already have a 6% reduction built into them. See Examiner story linked above.
But.. Let's go with these as the start point.

One has to presume these volumes were soundly based.
Noto that they appear to match numbers from CER (above) and have a 6% 'meter effect' built in.
Estimating this as accurately as possible has to be a prime activity in the set-up of a water utility.

It defines what the expected revenue will be. They can play with pricing, and the investment levels -  but they have little or no control over the volumes being consumed.
It would be totally insane to proceed very far down the road with planning if these consumption numbers were not determined to a high degree of confidence beforehand.

Some €86 Million was spent on consultants. Unless they were grossly incompetent, one of their first actions would have been to come up with water consumption estimates that were as well-reasoned as possible. Without that data, all the rest of their work to create a viable entity would be fantasy.

Consumption data would not be guesswork. All over Europe, there are water meters on houses. The data on actual consumption for different occupant mixes is sitting there waiting - in water utilities, studies and reports.

What volumes would each grid combination need to drop in order to meet the cap volumes?

Note that the % reduction falls as the number of children increases. This is because their (free) consumption increases the volume from which a % cut is to be taken.

No sign of anything approaching 6% there - and not many 15% or under

If “half the country” can meet the cap with a 15% reduction in consumption, then “half the country” is made up of (circled in red):
  • Single parents with 4 or more children, but need 5 or more to get under cap
  • Couples with 2 or more children
Remember that “children” here means you have to be in receipt of
“Child Benefit (previously known as Children's Allowance) is payable to the parents or guardians of children under 16 years of age, or under 18 years of age if the child is in full-time education, Youthreach training or has a disability. Child Benefit is not paid on behalf of 18-year olds.”
Note: As part of the climb-down from the original billing plan, Minister Alan Kelly changed this in his speech for teh government motion in the Dail. The child allowance is to apply for any child up to 18 - even if not in receipt of child benefit.

A couple with 2 young children could get under the cap with a 15% reduction. They need a 13% reduction to equal the cap.
Once the eldest child turns 18, they become 3 adults with 1 child. They would then need a 29% reduction to even meet the cap.
When the second child turns 18, they would need a 46% reduction to meet the cap.

BUT ... the post-meter redection that Irish Water expect(ed) was just 6%


This suppsed 15% reduction is very problematic ( aka miraculous ).
You're really going to need 3 children or more and cut by 10% to 11% to get down to the cap levels

"In terms of the metering, we initially believed consumption could fall by 10pc to 15pc.”
OK. 10% to 15% - but 10% or 11% probably nearer the mark.
See the report linked above. The 'metering effect' might be 11% at best - and that Irish Examiner story indicates that the real expectation for Ireland was 6%
Higher rates measured were once-off when leaks were discoverd and fixed. They did not reflect the volumes of water actually used by the household.

What would bills come out as if every household reduces consumption by 15% ?

Start with the consumption that the best brains that €86Milion could buy calculated as normal consumption.

How much water do people use now?
Again:


That’s with a 15% reduction in consumption.
Irish Water now (after the Governmant climb-down) seem to think that this would be the best generally achievable, but that there could be a spread between 10% and 15%.

So: “Beat the meter” ??
If you do unbelievably well and reduce by 15%, you will pay less than the cap only if you are:
  • Single parent with 5 children. You pay €11 less
  • Couple with 2 children. You pay €10 less.
  • Couple with 3 children. You pay €21 less.
  • Couple with 4 children. You pay €33 less.
  • Couple with 5 children. You pay €45 less.

General achievement of that 15% reduction is very questionable.
10% or 11% seems to be a realistic figure that is supported by studies.
6% seems to be CER's estimate

Apart from an ultra strict regime of water usage, it would involve investment to install dual-flush WCs, tap aerators, low-flow shower heads, etc. One would need rainwater harvesting as well.
This is all very well if you are on a TD salary (€87,000 ish) plus fat unvouched expenses & allowances, plus a ministerial level salary  (€100,000 to €200,000 ish) plus fat pensions from previous positions. It might also not be a problem for managers in Irish Water or the consultants who took €86 million for creating an utter shambles (again).
If you are on the breadline, the costs might be a problem.

But hey! You are getting a “Water Conservation Grant”. A few years of that could cover the cost of some conservation plumbing. Yes?
No. You need it to help pay the €160 or €260. It’s just a stroke by government to try reduce resistance to billing while trying to make it look like Irish Water is not getting an additional government support of €100 per household.
The stroke would cost more than direct aid as the €100 is going to all households – even if they have their own water supply and/or wastewater treatment.


"In terms of the metering, we initially believed consumption could fall by 10pc to 15pc. We have seen lower levels in Dublin since October 1, but we can't make assumptions in that regard.”
(‘Even 10% reduction might be optimistic. Cross fingers. Early days.’)

Here are the capped bills for the usage reduction range 15% down to 10%



If 10% (or even less!) reduction is the norm rather than 15%, then the only way to pay less than the cap is clear:
  • Get married or partnered. Don’t break up. At least live in the same house.
    Breed like rabbits. You need to get to 4 children. That way you’ll save about €1 /year. Go for a 5th child and you’ll save about €9 per year.
This only works while the four or five children qualify still for child benefit.


BUT.....
Is even 10% reduction too optimistic? 

How about 6% - that Irish Water actually expected?
Or 0% - that Irish Water saw happening on meters in Dublin after only a few weeks of an initial dip?
http://www.newstalk.com/Irish-Water-confirms-water-demand-returned-to-regular-levels-after-two-weeks-of-charges



Everybody pays €160 or €260 up until the billing rules change – which they absolutely will as soon as the government gets its nerve back.
Then you’ll be facing into the billing levels originally designed at huge expense (€86 Million) as making Irish Water viable.

Note: There was no €100 "Water Conservation Grant" in the original plan. That 'grant' is a replacement for the Houshold Allowance that existed in the original plan.
The EMC / Gang of Four (who really run the Cabinet) destroyed the Irish Water bottom line by capping the bills and reducing the cost per cubic meter.
They then moved to inflate Irish Water revenues to the tune of €100 per household, but in the hope that Brussels would not see this as the direct support that it really is.



It has to be said.



These tulips, making their “beat the meter” claims are either
  1. Grossly incompetent, or
  2. Brazen con men intent of fooling people so as to reduce the pressure ( to a trickle?)
Either way, they should be sacked.


It gets more crazy

Michael McNicholas ( chief executive of the Irish Water parent operation, Ervia )  - Come on Down!

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/water/irish-water-crisis/irish-water-bets-its-future-on-rinkydink-business-strategy-30764580.html





“According to McNicholas, around 25pc of households are already below the implied usage level in those charges and can reduce their bill easily.

The guy must be sniffing his own product.

These are the bills that would result from Irish Water own assessments of the water volumes that people are using now (with 0% reduction)

Hint.1: 0% (or that direction) are below usage level

Hint.2: A 10% ‘metering effect’ could be achievable by some. In these cases the bills would be:




Irish Water – taking the piss, in more ways than one